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Depression over Bay to become Cyclonic Storm, intensify further, Chennai to get heavy rains

Chennai, Nov 15 (UNI) The Depression over the Bay will intensify as a Cyclonic Storm Akvan tomorrow, further concentrate as a Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 17, promising heavy rains in Chennai and its adjoining North Tamil Nadu districts for from November 18
to 20, paving the way for the revival of the Northeast monsoon activity in the state.
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal will get light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely on November 17 and 20 with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on November 18-19.
This is the fourth Low Pressure area in succession to have formed over the Bay since the onset of Northeast monsoon on October 15. This would also be the third successive Cyclonic Storm over the Bay after the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab and Severe Cyclonic Storm Murasu, which have crossed the Andhra coast without impacting the Tamil Nadu coast.
Perhaps for the first time, four systems has formed in succession over the Bay. Except for the first Low Pressure, the second and third systems have intensified into Severe Cyclonic Storms and the present fourth system, too is all set to concentrate into a Cyclonic Storm and futher as Severe Cyclonic Storm making it a third Cyclone in succession, also a first.
In a Special bulletin on Sunday afternoon, IMD said the Depression over Southeast and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal moved nearly northwards with the speed of 10 kmph during the past three hours and lay centered at 0830 hours over the same region, about 630 km east of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 690km west-southwest of Sri Vijaya Puram (Andaman and Nicobar Islands), 840 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 1,010 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and 1,130 km south-southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha).
It is very likely to move north-northwestwards, intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm over the central parts of south and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal tomorrow and then into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over westcentral Bay of Bengal on November 17 (Tuesday), the IMD said. The Cyclonic Storm would be named "Akvan" as suggested by Iran in the naming list of tropical cyclones forming over North Indian Ocean.
Thereafter, it is likely to intensify further (as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm) and move northwestwards towards Andhra Pradesh coast during the subsequent 2 days.
Meanwhile, the Regional Metereological Centre, Chennai, said yesterday’s east-west trough now runs from the cyclonic circulation associated with the above Depression over Southeast and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal to Northern parts of Maldives and extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level. The upper air cyclonic circulation over South Tamilnadu and neighbourhood at 3.1 km above mean sea level has become less marked.
It has forecast moderate rain over North Coastal Tamil Nadu districts, Puducherry and Karaikal area and light rain over South Tamil Nadu districts tomorrow. However, the spells would gather steam on November 17 when heavy rain with thunderstorm and lightning with gusty winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph will occur over North TN districts of Chennai, Tiruvallur and Chengalpattu, while moderate rain will occur over rest of North Coastal Tamil Nadu districts, Puducherry and Karaikal area, besides light rain in South Tamil Nadu districts.
The Met office has issued Orange Alerts (rains upto 20 cms) for November 18 and 19 as heavy to very heavy rain with gusty winds will occur over Chennai, Tiruvallur and Chengalpattu districts. Heavy rain at over Northern Kanchipuram, Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram, Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai districts and Puducherry and moderate rain over rest of North Coastal Tamil Nadu districts, Puducherry and Karaikal area and also in Cauvery delta districts of Thanjavur and Tiruvarur and the Interior Vellore districts.
While heavy rain has been forecast for Chennai, Tiruvallur and Chengalpattu districts on November 20, the spells are likely to recede the next day as the forecast was moderate rains in Western Ghat region.
With the Cyclone on the horizon, Cautionary Signal No.1 has been hoisted in nine ports including Chennai, Kamarajar, Ennore, Cuddalore, Rameswaram, Nagapattinam, Thoothukudi, Puducherry and Karaikal.
Fishermen were advised not to venture into the sea till November 20. The sea condition would be rough to very rough over Southeast, Southwest and Central Bay of Bengal with gale winds with speed raning from 60 kmph and gradually increasing to 80-90 kmph, then to 100-110kmph and then to 120 kmph and gusting tpto 145 kmph from November 18-20.
IMD said fisheries departments and fishing harbor authorities are advised to alert fishermen and monitor subsequent marine warnings. Fishermen should plan their activities in accordance with the latest area-specific advisories till November 20, while shipping, port and offshore operators are advised to review operational preparedness and monitor subsequent forecasts for possible restrictions on weather-sensitive activities.
Maritime authorities may review communication, vessel-tracking and search-and-rescue preparedness, particularly for vessels operating in areas likely to be affected till November 20.
UNI GV 1510
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