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New Low Pressure Area forms over Bay, to intensify as Cyclonic Storm Akwan on Nov 16

Chennai, Nov 13 (UNI) A Fresh Low Pressure area has formed over the Bay on Friday morning, which will intensify into a Depression on November 15 and will further concentrate into a Cyclonic Storm Akwan, the next day, which was expected to revive the Northeast monsoon rainfall activity.
In a special message, the IMD said under the influence of yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over central Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands, a Low Pressure area has formed over Southeast Bay of Bengal at 0530 hours and lay over the same region at 0830 hours of today.
It is very likely to move northwestwards, become a Well Marked Low Pressure area tomorrow and intensify into a Depression over the same region on November 15 morning. Thereafter, it is likely to move north-northwestwards and intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm to be named Akwan, as suggested by Iran, over the central Bay of Bengal around November 16 evening.
Thanks to the fresh system, after a brief respite, the Northeast Monsoon is set to gather steam in Tamil Nadu in the coming days, with Chennai and its adjoining North coastal districts set to get fresh spell of rainfall, though it depended on the movement of the weather pattern.
Met office sources said the location of the landfall would be predicted once the system intensified into a Depression. Thereafter the movement of the system and the wind would determine it. Weather office scientists are keenly monitoring the trajectory of the system.
This is the fourth Low Pressure area in succession since the onset of Northeast monsoon on October 15. This would also be the third successive Cyclonic Storm over the Bay after the Vere Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab and Severe Cyclonic Storm Murasu. Both the Cyclones crossed the Andhra coast without impacting the Tamil Nadu coast.
Perhaps for the first time, four systems has formed in succession over the Bay. Except for the first Low Pressure, the second and third system had intensified into Severe Cyclonic Storms and the fourth system, formed today, is all set to concentrate into a Cyclonic Storm, making it a third Cyclone in success, also a first.
According to a private weather blogger, though the complex ridge set up was causing zigzag behaviour, Tamil Nadu was still in favourable position for a possible landfall, which means Northern and North coastal districts of Chennai, Chengalpattu, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Cuddalore and Villupuram districts would receive heavy rains. Rains could also be expected in Cauvery delta and
south coastal regions.
The system is likely to get caught between Arabian and Pacific ridge. In between the ridges models bringing westerly trough dip for
some time hence, it's become more complex about the steering pattern. "There is still no clear consensus among models about the
system. Most are struggling with the complex interaction between the Indo Pacific ridge, Indo Arabian ridge, and a dipping westerly trough. This is creating a highly uncertain and zigzagging scenario in the medium range", the blogger said.
As a result, different runs are scattering the system towards Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Bangladesh, and even Myanmar.
Also it's showed dissipation in open sea waters as well. The one point is clear none of the operational model is interested on Tamil
Nadu landfall but it's not final, he said.
With the Indo Arabian ridge strengthening significantly along with the Indo Pacific ridge, the influence of the westerly trough is expected to stay very limited. A strong northward recurvature looks unlikely at this stage. The system can't move towards Odisha, West Bengal, Bangladesh or Myanmar.
The key now is to watch how long the system stalls at the coasts after genesis and early consolidation. After the stall phase, either the Indo Pacific ridge or the Arabian ridge will take over the steering control and decide the final track. Genesis is about to happen, but proper consolidation of the system may still take another 36-48 hours. An initial westward movement is a bonus. After the stall, the system has a reasonable chance of taking a more direct westward/west-northwest path.
The dual ridge setup continues to favour Tamil Nadu more than northern states, but track uncertainty will persist until consolidation is complete, he said.
UNI GV 1405
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