IndiaPosted at: Sep 26 2026 4:54PM


As ‘historic, record-breaking’ Super El Niño intensifies, why India should be on watch

Vibha Sharma
New Delhi, Sep 26 (UNI) During normal years, strong east-to-west trade winds push warm surface water towards Asia and Indonesia, and cold, deep water rises near South America to replace it.

During El Niño events, these trade winds either weaken or reverse, allowing warm surface water to move towards the central and eastern Pacific, and in turn disrupting atmospheric circulation and altering rainfall and weather patterns across the globe.

This is what is happening currently as an exceptionally strong, potentially historic “Super El Niño” rages on and intensifies. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are climbing, with anomalies approaching record levels. According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), under the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a high probability that the event will intensify through the winter of 2026–27.

India, too, may face significant weather-related risks in the coming months.

El Niño is a complex, circular feedback loop where the trade winds and the ocean trigger and reinforce each other. It operates as a circular feedback loop where naturally weakening trade winds allow warm Pacific water to move eastward toward the Americas. This ocean warming reduces wind strength, creating a climate cycle that triggers severe droughts in Asia and heavy rainfall globally.

According to reports, the daily SSTs on September 21 in the region where El Niño develops was 3.08 degrees C warmer than the 1991 to 2020 average, which is more extreme than any other El Niño ever recorded.

India has already experienced a challenging monsoon season in 2026.

According to IMD data, the southwest monsoon recorded a 13% shortfall, contributing to dry conditions across large parts of the country. As much as 38 % the districts in the country are “deficient” and 5 % “large deficient” as per the IMD

Weather experts believe that the upcoming 2026–27 winter may be warmer and drier than normal in parts of India, with fewer cold-wave days and increased risks of air pollution and agricultural stress. The authorities, therefore, need to act on water-conservation measures and regional agricultural contingency plans, particularly in areas already experiencing rainfall deficits.

Scientists have been warning about climate change for a long time.

According to the NOAA, “Super El Niño” has a 100% probability of persisting through February 2027 and a 75% chance of becoming the strongest event of its kind documented since 1950.UNI VS AAB
Tags: #As ‘historic# record-breaking’ Super El Niño intensifies# why India should be on watch
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