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Low Pressure Area becomes Well Marked, to intensify as Cyclonic Storm Akvan on Nov 16

Chennai, Nov 14 (UNI) The Low Pressure area over the Bay has become Well Marked on Saturday morning and it would further intensify into a Depression and then as Cyclonic Storm Akvan on November 16.
In an update, the Met office said yesterday’s Low-Pressure Area over Southeast Bay of Bengal lay as a Well Marked Low Pressure area over the same region at 0530 hrs today.
It is very likely to move northwestwards and intensify into a Depression over the same region during the next 24 hours. Thereafter, it is likely to move north-northwestwards and intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm, to be named Akvan, as suggested by Iran, over the central Bay of Bengal around November 16 evening.
Thanks to the fresh system, after a brief respite, the Northeast Monsoon is set to gather steam in Tamil Nadu in the coming days, with Chennai and its adjoining North coastal districts set to get fresh spell of rainfall, though it depended on the movement of the weather pattern.
With Cyclonic Storm in the horizon and the system started intensifying, fishermen were advised not to venture into the sea till November 20 and those in deepsea are advised to return to the shores immediately
Met office sources said the location of the landfall would be predicted once the system intensified into a Depression. Thereafter the movement of the system and the wind pattern would determine it.
This is the fourth Low Pressure area in succession to form over the Bay since the onset of Northeast monsoon on October 15. This would also be the third successive Cyclonic Storm over the Bay after the Vere Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab and Severe Cyclonic Storm Murasu. Both the Cyclones crossed the Andhra coast without impacting the Tamil Nadu coast.
Perhaps for the first time, four systems has formed in succession over the Bay. Except for the first Low Pressure, the second and third system had intensified into Severe Cyclonic Storms and the fourth system, formed yesterday to is all set to concentrate into a Cyclonic Storm, making it a third Cyclone in succession, also a first.
Meanwhile, private weather blogger Hemachandar said "the system is likely to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm by November 17, reviving intensie rainfall activity in Tamil Nadu including in North coastal districts, including Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Chengalpattu, Cuddalore and Villupuram. Heavy rains are also likely in Cauvery delta and south coastal districts of Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, and Kanyakumari.
He also did not rule out the possibility of Cyclone making a landfall over North Tamil Nadu coasts (likely close to Chennai) on the night of November 19 and early morning of Novermber 20.
He said initially, the system is expected to move northwestwards, then likely to stall or move very slowly over the southwest Bay of Bengal on November 16 and 17 due to the blockage by the Indo-Arabian and Indo-Pacific ridges.
The Akvan system is likely to stall, strengthen further, and then move more straightforward towards the North Tamil Nadu coasts. Landfall is expected on the night of 19th November / early morning hours of 20th November over the North Tamil Nadu coasts.
The presence of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO meaning eastward-moving "pulse" of cloud, rainfall, winds, and atmospheric pressure) and Equatorial Rossby (ER) wave is likely to make this system more rain bearing rather than wind destructive.
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