States » SouthPosted at: Nov 14 2026 3:12PM


Well Marked Low Pressure area over Bay to gather steam, to intensify as Cyclonic Storm Akvan on Nov 16

Chennai, Nov 14 (UNI) The Well Marked Low Pressure area over the Bay will intensify into a Depression, consolidate further and become a Cyclonic Storm Akvan on November 16, with the evolving weather dynamics expected to determine the location of its
landfall.
Met office sources said the location of the landfall would be predicted once the system intensified into a Depression. Thereafter the movement of the system and the wind pattern would determine it.
This is the fourth Low Pressure area in succession to form over the Bay since the onset of Northeast monsoon on October 15. This would also be the third successive Cyclonic Storm over the Bay after the Vere Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab and Severe Cyclonic
Storm Murasu, which have crossed the Andhra coast without impacting the Tamil Nadu coast.
Perhaps for the first time, four systems has formed in succession over the Bay. Except for the first Low Pressure, the second and third systems have intensified into Severe Cyclonic Storms and the present fourth system, too is all set to concentrate into a Cyclonic Storm and futher as Severe Cyclonic Storm making it a third Cyclone in succession, also a first.
In an update, the Met office on Saturday afternoon said yesterday’s Low-Pressure Area over Southeast Bay of Bengal became a Well Marked Low Pressure Area at 0530 hrs and persisted over the same region at 0830 hrs.
It is very likely to move northwestwards and intensify into a Depression over the same region during the next 24 hours (tomorrow). Thereafter, it is likely to move north-northwestwards and intensify further into a Cyclonic Storm over the central parts of South and adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal around November 16 evening. Once this next major system gathers steam as a Cyclonic Storm,
it would be named "Akvan", as suggested by Iran in the naming list of tropical cyclones forming over North Indian Ocean.
Yesterday’s east-west trough from the cyclonic circulation associated with the Well marked Low-Pressure Area over Southeast Bay of Bengal to northern parts of Maldives across Southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean and extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level persists. An upper air cyclonic circulation also lay centred over south Tamilnadu and neighbourhood at 3.1 km above mean sea level.
Met office based on the current status has forecast light to moderate rains in Western Ghat, Coastal, South and South Coastal districts of Tamil Nadu till November 20.
According to RMC Director V.R.Durai the current predictions did not indicate its movement towards Tamil Nadu coast or any signficant influence altering the course of the Northeast monsoon thereby bringing in heavy rains. Usually, weather systems that have itsgenesis over southeast Bay of Bengal would have a tendency to move towards Andhra Pradesh as has been witnessed in the past two Cyclonic storm, which have spared the TN coast.
Once the system started getting consolidated over the Bay, the evolving weather dynamics and changes in its trajectory in the coming days would determine the course of its landfall location, he said.
Meanwhile, private weather blogger Hemachander said the system has taken more west movement in the last 24 hours and is trying to make consolidation over the Southwest Bay of Bengal and southeast of Sri Lanka coasts with North TN in focus. There was a high possibiity of the system moving more straight forwards towards the North Tamil Nadu coasts and is expected to make a landfall on November 19 night and the morning of November 20 between Ennore in Chennai and Cuddalore, bringing in intense and heavy rains
in the State, especially in North Coastal areas.
"Intensification remains on track. The system is likely to become a Depression during the next 18 hours, as a Deep Depression in about 36 hours, and Cyclonic Storm “Akvan” by November. 16. Further intensification into a Severe Cyclonic Storm is expected by November 17", he said.
Initially the system is expected to move northwestwards, then likely to stall or move very slowly over the Southwest Bay of Bengal on November 16 and 17 due to the blockage by the Indo-Arabian and Indo-Pacific ridges. After the stall phase, it is expected to move more straightforward towards the North Tamil Nadu coasts. "Landfall is still expected on the night of 19th November / early morning hours of 20th November over the North Tamil Nadu coasts between Ennore and Cuddalore", he said.
However, if the system continues to move west and further consolidates off the Southwest Bay of Bengal, some good rains are expected over the Cauvery Delta region on November 16. The presence of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) meaning eastward-moving "pulse" of cloud, rainfall, winds, and atmospheric pressure) and Equatorial Rossby (ER) wave is likely to make this system more rain-bearing rather than wind destructive.
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Tags: #Well Marked Low Pressure area over Bay to gather steam# to intensify as Cyclonic Storm Akvan on Nov 16
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