IndiaPosted at: Nov 4 2026 6:07PM


Heat reshaping India’s food economy as El Niño strengthens; drought in six states stresses farm outlook

Vibha Sharma
New Delhi, Nov 4 (UNI) Climate change is already cutting into India’s food supply, disrupting farm-to-market systems and driving up food prices, with annual losses running into billions of dollars, according to a new white paper by Climate Trends released on Wednesday.
The paper highlights how these cascading impacts threaten livelihoods, incomes and food security. “With heatwaves, erratic rainfall and the worst El Niño since 1950 on the horizon, these threats are expected to intensify,” states ‘From Risk to Resilience: Climate Change, Ecology and the Future of Indian Agriculture’, calling for an urgent agroecological transition towards a more sustainable food system.
Notably India is already experiencing a difficult post-monsoon season, with drought conditions declared by Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan.
Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan was recently quoted as saying that as much as 6.11 lakh hectares of cropland had been affected by extreme rainfall and floods.
Meanwhile, Gujarat has also announced crop-loss compensation, subsidised fodder and employment support for farmers in four drought-hit districts.
According to the researchers, the consequences extend beyond agriculture, affecting markets, food prices and household budgets.
Climate Trends research lead Palak Balyan said India's food losses were not merely a farming problem but a systemic challenge. Nearly a third of fruits and vegetables are lost before reaching consumers, with extreme weather events, including heatwaves and erratic rainfall, compounding post-harvest losses.
“Heat is already cutting milk yields, and soil health is declining in ways that will take years to reverse. Addressing this requires more than improved weather forecasts and sustained investment in storage, extension services and market access, so farmers are not left absorbing these losses alone,” Balyan said.
Dr G V Ramanjaneyulu of the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture said the crisis would persist, with the cascading effects of this year's drought likely to be felt over the coming years, six states had already declared drought so far.
Aarti Khosla of Climate Trends said Indian agriculture was being tested from two directions. An unfolding El Niño was adding pressure to a system already strained by deteriorating soil health, falling groundwater levels and decades of input-intensive farming.
“These shocks are extending beyond farms to markets, food prices, household budgets and inflationary pressures. Wars and geopolitical turmoil this year have also highlighted the risks of dependence on fertilisers manufactured using imported fossil fuels and vulnerability to precarious supply chains,” she said.
Notably, heat stress costs India an estimated Rs 2,661 crore annually in lost milk production, equivalent to approximately 1.8 million tonnes, or 2 percent of national output, according to researchers.
Weak cold-chain infrastructure costs the country an estimated $13 billion annually. Up to 40 per cent of fruits and vegetables and 5–6 percent of grains are lost before reaching consumers, they say
Only 4 per cent of India's fresh produce is covered by cold-chain facilities, they add.
“More than 20 million hectares of agricultural land, representing over 14 per cent of the country's total sown area, have been affected by floods, droughts, cyclones, heatwaves, cold waves and other natural hazards.
“Approximately 40 per cent of India's livestock population is vulnerable to extreme weather, while 45 per cent of crop-producing land lies in areas exposed to significant flood risk.
“Per-hectare chemical fertiliser consumption more than doubled in three decades, rising from 73.5 kg in 1990 to 199 kg in 2023,” as per the researchers.UNI VS AAB
Tags: #Heat reshaping India’s food economy as El Niño strengthens; drought in six states stresses farm outlook
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