IndiaPosted at: Nov 9 2026 7:53PM


UP & Uttarakhand 2027: BJP may drop sitting MLAs, but carefully

Vibha Sharma
New Delhi, Nov 9 (UNI) As it normally does, the ruling BJP is expected to deny tickets to many sitting MLAs in Uttar Pradesh, reportedly 30 to 40 %, —a strategy aimed at countering anti-incumbency, as it seeks a third consecutive term in the state in 2027.
However, the party’s experience with large-scale ticket change in the 2022 Assembly elections yielded mixed results, and those in the know of inner developments say cuts will be done carefully, while taking into account all factors, including a candidate’s popularity factor.
Replacements provide opportunities to new faces and help address voter fatigue, but they can also trigger resentment among leaders denied tickets and their supporters, they add.
The party's ticket-replacement generally ranges between 15% and 30% with some states also witnessing cuts of around 30 to 40%.
In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP denied tickets to around 104 sitting MLAs, 32% of its incumbent legislators. The party won 255 seats, down by 57 from its 2017 tally.
“Replacing sitting MLAs does not necessarily guarantee better results. In 2022, a better strike rate was reported among candidates who were retained than among those who replaced sitting legislators,” according to a senior party leader.
In neighbouring Uttarakhand, the BJP also dropped many sitting MLAs for the 2022 Assembly elections, but Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami lost his Khatima seat.
Sources say this time, the BJP is taking a more targeted approach, relying on strict performance audit and personal rapport with voters.
As it prepares for the 2027 elections, the saffron party is dealing with multiple challenges and the anti-incumbency of two consecutive terms in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand is just one of them.
In UP, the BJP holds fewer seats today than it did before the 2022 polls. When it headed into the 2022 elections, the ruling party had over 300 sitting MLAs of which it dropped around 32%.
Ahead of the 2027 polls, the party has 255 seats in the 403-member Assembly and cutting 30 to 40% would translate into a larger number.
A 40% cut would involve a number of MLAs roughly similar to the number it dropped for the 2022 elections.
“The party is relying on internal performance assessments and local feedback while deciding which sitting MLAs to retain and which to replace. After two successive victories, there are multiple challenges that need to be addressed, including constituency-level dissatisfaction accumulating over the years for the party in general,” say sources.

A key consideration will be to distinguish between MLAs facing genuine anti-incumbency and those whose local political standing continue to be strong.
“A sitting MLA may face criticism over accessibility, development work or local organisational issues but replacing him or her could also create dissatisfaction among workers and supporters, that too needs to be taken care of, ” they add.
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