IndiaPosted at: Sep 30 2026 9:14PM

Muskan Bhatia
New Delhi, Sep 30 (UNI) India saw the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season ending with a 13 per cent rainfall deficit, making it the country's fourth weakest monsoon since 2001, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The below-normal rains have heightened concerns over the upcoming rabi sowing season, with lower soil moisture and below-last-year reservoir levels likely to affect crop planting in several rain-fed regions.
The 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 12.6% rainfall deficit during the June 1-September 30 period, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The deficit was most severe in East and Northeast India, where rainfall was 25.6% below normal, followed by South Peninsular India at 24.3%.
Despite some improvement in rainfall towards the end of September, the country received only 759.4 mm of rainfall, or 87% of its Long Period Average (LPA), making it the 13th-lowest monsoon since 1901 and the fourth-lowest since 2001.
The weak monsoon was largely driven by strengthening El Niño conditions, which the IMD had flagged months before the season began, said the officials.
Rainfall remained uneven across the country.
Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 recorded deficient rainfall, 18 received normal rainfall and only one recorded excess rainfall.
At the district level, 282 districts, or 38 per cent of the country's districts, ended the season with deficient rainfall, while another 34 districts recorded large deficient rainfall.
The eastern and northeastern parts of the country were the worst affected. The region recorded its lowest monsoon rainfall since 1901, while South Peninsular India experienced its fourth driest southwest monsoon on record.
Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, were the worst-impacted and remained rainfall-deficient throughout all four monsoon months, said the IMD official.
Although the season ended with a double-digit rainfall deficit, the weekly pattern was highly erratic.
Rainfall swung sharply between surplus and deficit spells, including a 45.4 per cent surplus in the week ending July 8 followed immediately by a 51.1 per cent deficit the next week.
After a brief recovery in late July and early August, rainfall remained below normal through much of August and September before a strong spell of rain in the final week narrowed the seasonal shortfall.
Experts noted that the longer spells, over 60 days between the two peaks, were normal for El Niño years.
The IMD's forecasts had broadly anticipated a weak monsoon. In April, it projected seasonal rainfall at 92 per cent of the LPA, before revising the estimate to 90 per cent in May as El Niño strengthened.
The season eventually closed at 87 per cent of the LPA, remaining within the forecast uncertainty range but reflecting a more uneven distribution of rainfall than the national average suggests.
The rainfall deficit has already begun to reflect in agriculture.
Kharif sowing stood at 110.8 million hectares as of September 25, down 1.2 per cent from a year earlier, with rice acreage declining 3.6 per cent year-on-year.
Pulses acreage, however, increased, led by higher sowing of urad and arhar.
Lower rainfall has also kept reservoir levels below last year's position. Live storage in 150 major reservoirs stood at 130 billion cubic metres, or about 71 per cent of their total capacity, although improved rainfall in parts of eastern, western and central India has helped replenish storage in recent weeks.
Agriculture experts say reservoir storage and soil moisture will be closely watched as farmers prepare for the rabi season. Strong El Niño conditions, which the World Meteorological Organization and IMD officials expect to persist into early 2027, could result in warmer winter conditions and reduced rainfall over parts of the country, potentially affecting winter crops.
Looking ahead, the IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall across most of India during October, although parts of northwest India, southern Peninsular India and isolated pockets of eastern India could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
The department has also projected normal northeast monsoon rainfall over South Peninsular India during October-December, offering some relief to Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining regions that depend on the post-monsoon rains.
Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon has begun withdrawing from northwestern parts of the country.
The IMD said conditions are becoming favourable for its withdrawal from the remaining parts of northwest and central India over the next few days and from eastern India during the following week.
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